Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Palo Alto Networks' Next Generation-Security ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $7.5B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $8.5B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $8.0B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palo Alto Networks will report its third fiscal quarter 2026 results in early June 2026, with the market settling on whether Next-Generation Security Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeds a specified threshold. The 99% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong conviction that the company will clear this bar, with current bids and asks concentrated heavily on the "Yes" side, indicating minimal liquidity for contrarian positions.
Palo Alto's NGS ARR has demonstrated consistent growth trajectory over recent quarters, driven by platform consolidation demand and expansion within existing customer bases. The company reported $5.7bn in total ARR as of Q2 fiscal 2026, with NGS representing a material and accelerating component. Historical performance suggests the company has reliably met or exceeded guidance on this metric, establishing a pattern that informs the current market pricing. Comparable security vendors have similarly maintained upward ARR momentum despite macroeconomic headwinds, though Palo Alto's scale and product positioning provide structural advantages.
Traders should monitor the company's Q2 earnings call guidance for Q3 expectations, typically provided in May 2026, which would directly inform the settlement threshold. Any material M&A activity, significant customer wins or losses, or shifts in platform adoption rates could alter trajectory. The settlement hinges entirely on figures disclosed in official earnings materials; subsequent revisions or restatements will not be considered, creating binary risk around reporting accuracy and metric definitions as presented by the company.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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