Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 99th Academy Awards, given by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), honor the best in film for movies released in the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the awards ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Holland receives an Oscar nomination during the official nominations announcement, expected on January 21, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 6%, making this a high-confidence market with 112 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $849 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination? | 6% YES | 94% NO |
A prediction market is a real-money contract that pays $1 per YES share if the stated outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not. The current price is therefore the crowd's probability estimate - set by thousands of traders competing in a live order book, not a bookmaker. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket venue, adds an email-first login and USDC deposits, and settles on Polygon within minutes of the result.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 21 January 2027. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate - once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically - every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome - patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 6%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 833 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $833 gross payout, or +$783 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge - no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$370 in lifetime turnover and $849 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for awards contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin - large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $380 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market - a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month - fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery - meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake - there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon - a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition - historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination?", the considerations above apply directly - Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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