Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 39.0–39.4 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 39.5–39.9 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| <38.0 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 40.0+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 38.0–38.4 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 38.5–38.9 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Trump's approval rating as measured by Nate Silver's aggregator on 15 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution. Silver Bulletin synthesises polling data from multiple sources into a single approval figure, with the green trend line providing the official metric. The market settles once the next data point after the resolution date becomes available, ensuring the May reading is finalised before resolution occurs.
Historical approval trajectories for sitting presidents show considerable volatility tied to economic conditions, foreign policy events, and legislative outcomes. Trump's previous approval ratings ranged between the mid-30s and low-50s during his first term, with significant swings following major announcements or crises. The current 41% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations that Trump's approval will exceed 50% by mid-May 2026—a threshold requiring meaningful improvement from typical recent polling patterns. Comparable periods of presidential approval movement suggest such shifts require sustained positive economic data or major legislative victories.
Traders should monitor labour market reports, inflation figures, and any significant geopolitical developments in the months preceding May 2026, as these typically drive approval movements. Congressional legislative activity and budget negotiations will likely influence sentiment. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory and stock market performance remain key economic indicators affecting presidential approval. Any major domestic or international incidents could produce sharp shifts in the aggregated polling data that Silver Bulletin incorporates, making real-time news flow essential for position management through the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump approval rating on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for approval contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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