Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 3 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $250 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $255 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $260 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $265 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $270 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Amazon's share price will be assessed at the official close on 3 June 2026, with the market resolving affirmatively if the closing price exceeds the strike level specified in the market title. The 96% implied probability reflects substantial confidence in an upside outcome, formed through active order-book participation on Polymarket where traders are pricing in a relatively tight margin of error between current valuations and the settlement threshold.
Historical precedent suggests that single-day directional bets on mega-cap technology stocks typically see high probability assignments when the strike is set modestly above prevailing prices. Amazon's historical volatility and the extended timeframe to June 2026 mean that even modest daily fluctuations can influence whether the close clears the target. The crowd's conviction at 96% indicates the strike has been positioned conservatively relative to expected price action, leaving limited downside room before resolution fails.
Traders should monitor Amazon's quarterly earnings announcements, AWS revenue trends, and broader technology sector momentum through early 2026, as these remain primary drivers of share price direction. Macroeconomic data affecting consumer spending and cloud infrastructure demand will also influence positioning. Any significant corporate actions—such as dividend announcements or capital allocation decisions—could shift the underlying price trajectory. Market-wide disruptions or trading halts into the close on 3 June would trigger the fallback resolution mechanism using the last valid on-exchange trade price, a contingency worth noting given the specificity of official closing-price requirements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Amazon (AMZN) closes above 2026 on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for amzn contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $937 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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