Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player records an albatross during any main tournament round of any PGA Tour-sanctioned tournament or major championship (Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open Championship) before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only main tournament rounds will be considered. No Par 3, practice round, or any other form of play that is not officially scored as part of the main tournament rounds of applicable PGA Tour-sanctioned tournaments or major championship will count toward the resolution of this market.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 45%, making this a coinflip market resolving today, backed by $9 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PGA Tour: Player to Record Albatross by June 30, 2026? | 45% YES | 55% NO |
An albatross—a three-under-par score on a single hole—remains one of golf's rarest feats. The market assesses whether any player will achieve this on a main tournament round of a PGA Tour event or major championship between now and 30 June 2026. The 49% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about an event that occurs perhaps once every few years across professional golf's entire ecosystem.
Historical context shows albatrosses are genuinely scarce. Since 2010, fewer than one albatross per year has been recorded across all PGA Tour events and majors combined. The most recent documented albatross on the PGA Tour occurred in 2023. With roughly 50 PGA Tour events and four majors scheduled within the settlement window, the base rate suggests perhaps a 40–60% probability of at least one occurring. The current 49% probability aligns with this historical frequency, suggesting the market has priced in the rarity appropriately without significant skew.
Traders should monitor the 2026 PGA Tour schedule and major championship venues, particularly courses with reachable par-5s where albatrosses are theoretically possible. Course design and field strength matter; tournaments at shorter layouts with elevated scoring opportunities present marginally higher odds. Weather conditions during tournament weeks—particularly wind patterns that might allow longer drives—can shift individual event probabilities. The Masters in April 2026 and U.S. Open in June represent the final major opportunities within the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "PGA Tour: Player to Record Albatross by June 30, 2026?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 45%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 111 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $111 gross payout, or +$61 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "PGA Tour: Player to Record Albatross by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25 in lifetime turnover and $9 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for albatross contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 45%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "PGA Tour: Player to Record Albatross by June 30, 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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