Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Z.ai | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Mistral | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| DeepSeek | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Company I | — | |
| Company K | — | |
| Anthropic | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| 32% YES | 69% NO | |
| Alibaba | 4% YES | 97% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard will determine which company owns the third-ranked large language model on 30 June 2026. The settlement relies on a snapshot of the "Text Arena | Overall" rankings at that specific date, with ties broken by raw Elo score. Currently, the order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 3% implied probability, suggesting traders view it as a low-likelihood event relative to alternatives in the market's structure.
Historical precedent shows the top three positions on Chatbot Arena have remained relatively concentrated. As of late 2024, Anthropic, OpenAI, and either Meta or a Chinese developer typically occupy the highest ranks, though the third position has shifted between competitors. The leaderboard's methodology—crowdsourced pairwise comparisons—introduces volatility, particularly for models near ranking boundaries where small shifts in user preference can alter placement. Previous leaderboard snapshots demonstrate that third-place finishes are contested territory, making the 3% probability reflect genuine uncertainty about which company will hold that specific position in eighteen months.
Traders should monitor model releases and capability announcements from major developers through 2025 and early 2026. OpenAI's roadmap, Anthropic's Claude iterations, Meta's Llama development, and emerging Chinese models from companies like Alibaba or Baidu represent key catalysts. The leaderboard itself updates continuously based on user votes, so late-stage momentum shifts—particularly in the weeks before June 2026—could alter final rankings. Regulatory changes affecting model availability in different regions may also influence which models accumulate sufficient user comparisons to establish stable rankings.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company has the third best AI model end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $308 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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