What is the current probability for "Kimi K3 Released By"?

As of 11 May 2026, the market probability on PolyGram is available on PolyGram. Trade on this outcome at polygram.ink.

Trade: Kimi K3 released by…?

Q: What happens when the market resolves?

Winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon with a two-hour dispute window before payouts are distributed automatically.

Opened 2 April 2026 · Settles 30 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”. Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $4K
Total Volume: $39K
24h Volume: $158
Open Interest: $2K

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Market outcomes

April 30	0% YES	100% NO
June 30	14% YES	86% NO
May 31	7% YES	93% NO

Market context

Moonshot AI, a Chinese artificial intelligence company, has not yet released Kimi K3 to the general public as of late 2024. The market settles on whether this flagship successor to Kimi K2.5 becomes publicly available by 30 June 2026. Moonshot released Kimi K2.5 in March 2024, establishing a pattern of iterative model releases within China's competitive large language model landscape. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether Moonshot will meet this timeline, with no current public roadmap confirming a K3 release date.

Historical precedent from Chinese AI developers shows variable release cycles. Zhipu AI released ChatGLM 3 approximately 18 months after ChatGLM 2, whilst Alibaba's Qwen series has maintained roughly annual major version increments. Moonshot's progression from K2 to K2.5 (a minor update within months) rather than a full K3 suggests the company may prioritise incremental improvements over major releases. The current zero probability likely reflects the absence of any official K3 announcement or timeline, combined with the technical and regulatory hurdles facing Chinese AI firms seeking international distribution.

Traders should monitor Moonshot's official announcements and product roadmaps, particularly any statements from founder Chen Yiming regarding next-generation models. Regulatory developments affecting Chinese AI exports to Western markets, and competitive pressure from rivals like Zhipu and Alibaba, will shape release decisions. The 18-month settlement window provides sufficient time for a major release cycle, though Moonshot's historical preference for measured updates rather than dramatic leaps suggests cautious positioning.

Wikipedia Context

Kimi Antonelli
Andrea Kimi Antonelli is an Italian racing driver who competes in Formula One for Mercedes. Antonelli has won three Formula One Grands Prix across two seasons.
Kimi Räikkönen
Kimi-Matias Räikkönen is a Finnish racing and rally driver who competed in Formula One between 2001 and 2021, and the World Rally Championship from 2009 to 2011. Nicknamed "the Iceman", Räikkönen won the Formula One World Drivers' Championship in 2007 with Ferrari, and won 21 Grands Prix across 19 seasons.
Kimigayo
"Kimigayo" (君が代) is the national anthem of Japan. The lyrics are from a waka poem written by an unnamed author in the Heian period (794–1185), making the lyrics of "Kimigayo" the oldest lyrics out of any national anthem, and the current melody was chosen in 1880, replacing an unpopular melody composed by John William Fenton in 1869. While the title "Kimigayo
Kimi ni Todoke
Kimi ni Todoke: From Me to You is a Japanese manga series written and illustrated by Karuho Shiina. It was published by Shueisha in Bessatsu Margaret from 2005 to 2017 and collected in 30 tankōbon volumes. The story follows Sawako Kuronuma, a high school girl misunderstood for her eerie appearance, as she navigates friendships and love with the help of her

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Kimi K3 released by…?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$39K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $158 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Kimi K3 released by…?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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