Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on June 3 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $295 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $300 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $305 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $310 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $315 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Apple's closing price on 3 June 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The 98% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects an exceptionally high confidence that AAPL will close above the specified strike price on that date. Such probabilities typically form when the threshold is set substantially below prevailing price levels or when traders perceive minimal downside risk within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests that single-day closure predictions for large-cap equities rarely sustain probabilities above 95% unless the strike is positioned well beneath current trading ranges. AAPL's historical volatility and the 18-month timeframe to settlement introduce material uncertainty; whilst the stock has demonstrated resilience across market cycles, individual session closures remain subject to intraday fluctuations, earnings surprises, macroeconomic shifts, and sector-specific headwinds. Comparable markets on established equities typically show wider probability distributions when settlement windows extend beyond a few weeks.
Traders should monitor Apple's earnings calendar, product announcements, and broader technology sector momentum leading into June 2026. Regulatory developments affecting semiconductor supply chains, artificial intelligence competition, and consumer demand trends will influence positioning. The current order book pricing reflects confidence in Apple's continued operational stability, though any material adverse news—regulatory action, significant product delays, or broader market dislocations—could shift probabilities materially. Settlement uses the official closing price published by exchanges; any trading halts or delisting events would trigger use of the last valid on-exchange trade price.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Apple (AAPL) closes above 2026 on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for aapl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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