Trade: FIFA World Cup: Most Assists
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who records the most assists through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who completed more passes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- $700
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $655
Market outcomes
| Xavi Simons | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Riyad Mahrez | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Ermedin Demirović | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Ryan Mendes | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Luka Modrić | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Leandro Bacuna | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Mohamed Salah | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Bukayo Saka | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June to August, featuring 48 nations in an expanded format. This market resolves to whichever player records the most assists across all tournament matches, with FIFA's official tally determining the winner. The 10% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty around which individual will lead the assists chart—a metric heavily influenced by team performance, playing time, and tactical setup rather than individual skill alone.
Historical World Cup data shows assists leaders typically emerge from nations that progress deep into the tournament. At Qatar 2022, Lionel Messi finished with three assists despite Argentina's success, whilst Gerd Müller's 1970 record of four assists remains the tournament benchmark. The current probability suggests the market is pricing in genuine difficulty in predicting a single standout playmaker, particularly given the expanded format means more matches and distributed opportunity across a larger player pool. Established creative midfielders and wingers from strong squads—potentially from France, England, Argentina, or Spain—represent the most probable candidates based on historical patterns.
Key catalysts include squad announcements from major federations (expected late 2025), which will clarify available talent and tactical approaches. Injuries to established playmakers in the qualifying period and early 2026 friendlies will shift expectations. The tournament's expanded structure means more total matches, potentially allowing deeper accumulation of assists compared to previous tournaments. Polymarket's order book will likely tighten as the tournament approaches and squad compositions solidify, with the current 10% reflecting pre-tournament information scarcity.
Wikipedia Context
-
2026 FIFA World CupThe 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the 23rd FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international men's soccer championship contested by the national teams of the member associations of FIFA. The tournament will take place from June 11 to July 19, 2026. It will be jointly hosted by sixteen cities—eleven in the United States, three in Mexico, and two in Canada. The tour
-
FIFA World Cup awards
At the end of each FIFA World Cup final tournament, several awards are presented to the players and teams who have distinguished themselves in various aspects of the game.
-
List of FIFA World Cup hostsEighteen countries have hosted the FIFA World Cup in the competition's twenty-two tournaments since the inaugural World Cup in 1930. The organisation at first awarded hosting to countries at meetings of FIFA's congress. The choice of location was controversial in the earliest tournaments, given the three-week boat journey between South America and Europe, th
-
FIFA World Cup records and statistics
As of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, 80 national teams have competed at the finals of the men’s FIFA World Cup. Brazil is the only team to have appeared in all 22 tournaments to date, with Germany having participated in 20, Italy and Argentina in 18 and Mexico in 17. Eight nations have won the tournament. The inaugural winners in 1930 were Uruguay; the current ch
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "FIFA World Cup: Most Assists" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$700 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for 2026 fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "FIFA World Cup: Most Assists"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: