Trade: US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $1.3M
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $12K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The question concerns whether active-duty US military personnel will physically enter Venezuelan territory between now and end of June 2026. The resolution criteria exclude diplomatic visits, intelligence operations, and contractor activity, focusing specifically on boots-on-ground military operations. The 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current market sentiment, formed by traders pricing the likelihood of such an incursion within the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent provides limited recent guidance. The last significant US military intervention in Venezuela occurred during the Cold War; more recent episodes have involved covert operations, sanctions regimes, and diplomatic pressure rather than overt troop deployments. The 2019-2020 period saw heightened tensions under the Trump administration, including naval exercises and rhetoric about military options, yet no actual ground incursion materialised. Regional military capacity remains asymmetrical—Venezuela's armed forces are substantially degraded—but geographic distance and political costs have historically constrained direct action.
Current catalysts centre on political instability within Venezuela. The disputed July 2024 presidential election and ongoing questions about regime legitimacy could theoretically trigger humanitarian intervention scenarios or support for opposition forces, though the incoming US administration's posture remains uncertain. Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and Pentagon regarding Venezuela policy, any escalation in regional proxy conflicts, or humanitarian crises that might justify intervention justifications. The timeframe extends through mid-2026, capturing potential shifts in both Venezuelan governance and US strategic priorities, though the 6% probability suggests markets currently assess such scenarios as unlikely.
Wikipedia Context
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United States Armed Forces
The United States Armed Forces are the military forces of the United States. United States federal law establishes six armed forces: the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard, each assigned specific roles and operational domains. With the exception of the Coast Guard, which operates under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
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US Forces (song)"US Forces" is the first single released from Australian rock band Midnight Oil's fourth studio album, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. The song, which denounces US military intervention in foreign affairs, charted at no. 20 in Australia.
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2020–2021 U.S. troop withdrawal from AfghanistanThe United States Armed Forces completed their withdrawal from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021, marking the end of the 2001–2021 war. In February 2020, the first Trump administration and the Taliban signed the United States–Taliban deal in Doha, Qatar, which stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban, and in return for the Taliban's count
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United States Forces KoreaThe United States Forces Korea (USFK) is a subordinate unified command of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). USFK was initially established in 1957, and encompasses U.S. combat-ready fighting forces and components under the ROK/US Combined Forces Command (CFC) – a supreme command for all of the South Korean and U.S. ground, air, sea, and special operat
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.3M in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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