Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the acting White House Press Secretary says the listed term during the next White House press briefing they participate in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| President 30+ times | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| President 40+ times | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Administration 10+ times | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Thing 10+ times | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Go ahead 5+ times | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Ceasefire | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| Spanish | 38% YES | 63% NO |
White House press briefings occur regularly, typically several times weekly, providing the Press Secretary with frequent opportunities to use specific terminology during public remarks. The current 72% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that the listed term has a high likelihood of appearing in the next briefing the acting Press Secretary conducts. This probability is being formed through active trading on the order book, where buyers and sellers are pricing in factors including the term's frequency in recent administration discourse, its relevance to current policy priorities, and the Press Secretary's established communication patterns.
Historical precedent suggests that commonly-used administrative terminology—particularly terms related to ongoing policy initiatives, economic messaging, or crisis response—appears in press briefings with considerable regularity. Terms tied to active legislative efforts or repeated talking points show substantially higher appearance rates than niche or contextual language. The 72% probability sits in the range typically associated with terminology that has demonstrated consistent usage across multiple recent briefings or represents core messaging the administration emphasises regularly.
Traders should monitor the White House press schedule for the next briefing date, as the settlement window extends to 31 May 2026. Recent shifts in administration priorities, legislative developments, or international events can alter the relevance and frequency of specific terms. The specific term's appearance in recent presidential remarks, cabinet statements, and official communications provides concrete data for assessing whether the current probability accurately reflects its likelihood of use in the next scheduled briefing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$185 in lifetime turnover and $683 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $185 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: