Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Welsh Labour | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Welsh Conservatives | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Welsh Liberal Democrats | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party I | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Welsh voters will elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) on 7 May 2026. The election determines which party or coalition commands a majority in the devolved legislature responsible for health, education, transport and economic development in Wales. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's inability to price individual party outcomes at this early stage, with liquidity concentrated elsewhere or orders simply not yet placed for this specific contract.
Welsh elections have historically produced fragmented results across four main competitors: Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats. Labour has dominated recent cycles, winning 30 seats in 2021 and forming a minority government. The 2021 election saw Plaid Cymru gain ground with 13 seats, whilst Conservatives held 16 and Lib Dems secured one. Current polling from early 2024 suggests Labour remains the plurality favourite, though margins remain fluid. The 0% reading likely reflects traders awaiting clearer price discovery rather than genuine consensus that no party will win most seats.
Key catalysts include the UK general election scheduled for July 2024, which may reshape the Welsh political landscape and trigger mid-term polling shifts. Welsh Labour's performance under current leadership, any major policy announcements from Plaid Cymru on independence strategy, and economic conditions in Wales through 2025 will influence voter sentiment. The settlement window closes 31 December 2026, allowing ample time for campaign dynamics to crystallise before May's vote.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Wales Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$325K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $63K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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