Trade: Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $65K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Charity Clark | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Aly Richards | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Esther Charlestin | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
Market context
Vermont's Democratic primary for governor will occur on 11 August 2026, with the winner determined by the Vermont Democratic Party's official announcement. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 3% probability for this outcome, suggesting traders assess the Democratic nominee as a substantial underdog in the general election or anticipate a competitive primary field that fragments the vote. Vermont has elected Republican governors in recent cycles—Phil Scott won re-election in 2022 with 67% of the vote—establishing a pattern where the Democratic primary winner faces an uphill general election battle, which may explain the low implied probability.
Historical context shows Vermont's Democratic primary typically draws multiple candidates when the governorship is open. The state's lean-Republican trend at the gubernatorial level contrasts with its strong Democratic performance in federal races, creating a structural headwind for any Democratic nominee. Previous Democratic primary contests have seen candidates from the party's moderate and progressive wings compete, though recent Vermont politics has shifted leftward in some respects. The current 3% probability reflects both the general election difficulty and uncertainty about the primary field composition.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through late 2025 and early 2026, which will clarify the primary's competitiveness and frontrunner status. Vermont's primary schedule and any early polling data released by local news outlets or the Democratic Party will provide signals about consolidation around leading candidates. The general election environment in 2026 and any shifts in Republican strength will also influence how the market reassesses the Democratic nominee's viability.
Wikipedia Context
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Governor of VermontThe governor of Vermont is the head of government of the U.S. state of Vermont. The officeholder is elected in even-numbered years by direct voting for a term of two years. Vermont and bordering New Hampshire are the only states to hold gubernatorial elections every two years, instead of every four as in the other 48 U.S. states.
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The Pavilion (Vermont)The Pavilion is the principal workplace of the governor of Vermont, located at 109 State Street in Montpelier, capital of the U.S. state of Vermont. The building is built in the French Second Empire style, and houses the working offices, reception room, press briefing room, and living apartments of Vermont's governor. The term "The Fifth Floor" is sometimes
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$65K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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