Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | 6% YES | 95% NO |
The Trump administration's approach to Ukraine security arrangements remains uncertain as negotiations continue over potential peace settlements and long-term defence commitments. A formal U.S. security guarantee—defined here as a binding, publicly announced mutual defence obligation equivalent to NATO Article 5—represents a significant escalation from current policy. The current 7% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that such a formal commitment will materialise within the 18-month window through June 2026.
Historical precedent suggests formal security guarantees are rare and require sustained political consensus. The U.S. entered NATO in 1949 after years of debate, whilst post-Cold War security arrangements with Eastern European states took years to formalise. Ukraine's 1994 Budapest Memorandum provided assurances but fell short of binding mutual defence obligations. Trump's previous administration withdrew from several international commitments, and his stated preference for negotiated settlements rather than open-ended security pledges shapes current expectations. The 7% probability reflects these structural headwinds against formal guarantees.
Key catalysts include any peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which could either necessitate or preclude U.S. security guarantees depending on settlement terms. Congressional approval would likely be required for binding commitments, introducing additional procedural hurdles. Statements from Trump administration officials regarding Ukraine policy, scheduled diplomatic meetings, and any formal proposals from either the U.S. or Ukrainian governments will move markets. Reuters and other outlets have reported ongoing discussions about potential security frameworks, though these remain preliminary and non-binding.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$147K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $670 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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