Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sholdon Daniels | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Everett Jackson | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person J | — | |
Texas's 30th congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the general election. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 14% probability that a specific Republican candidate wins that nomination, with the remaining probability distributed across other potential contenders or an "Other" resolution. This low implied probability suggests either a fragmented field with multiple viable candidates or significant uncertainty about which candidates will ultimately enter the race.
Historical precedent from recent Texas Republican primaries indicates that open seats or competitive districts typically see multiple establishment and grassroots candidates competing, which fragments support across the field. The TX-30 district, which covers parts of Harris County and is currently represented by Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee, has attracted Republican attention in previous cycles. When primary fields remain unsettled more than a year before voting, individual candidate probabilities tend to remain depressed, as traders account for late entrants and shifting endorsements.
Key catalysts for this market include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, and endorsements from established Republican figures or groups within the district. The Texas primary filing deadline, usually in December 2025, will clarify the actual field size. Traders should monitor local Texas political reporting and Republican Party communications regarding recruitment efforts in the district, as these will directly influence whether the current frontrunner consolidates support or faces sustained fragmentation through primary day.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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