Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Félix Tshisekedi ceases to be President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Félix Tshisekedi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Félix Tshisekedi has served as President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since January 2019, following a disputed election that saw his predecessor Joseph Kabila step down after 18 years in power. The market assesses the probability that Tshisekedi will be removed from, resign from, or otherwise cease holding the presidency before the end of 2026—a roughly two-year window. The 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively low conviction that such an outcome materialises, though the DRC's political history suggests institutional instability remains a material risk factor.
Presidential transitions in the DRC have historically occurred through contested elections, military intervention, or negotiated departures rather than smooth constitutional succession. Kabila's 2019 exit followed sustained international pressure and domestic unrest, whilst earlier transitions involved armed conflict or coup activity. Tshisekedi's consolidation of power has been gradual; he secured a second term in November 2023 in an election marred by low turnout and opposition boycotts, suggesting underlying legitimacy questions persist. However, his current control of state institutions and security apparatus appears substantially firmer than at his 2019 accession.
Near-term catalysts centre on provincial and local elections scheduled for 2024–2025, potential constitutional amendments under discussion, and factional tensions within Tshisekedi's coalition. The security situation in eastern provinces, particularly involving M23 militia activity, remains volatile and could destabilise the capital if it escalates significantly. International pressure regarding governance and mineral extraction policies may also intensify, though such pressure has not historically forced presidential transitions in Kinshasa. Traders should monitor opposition coordination, military loyalty signals, and any major security deterioration as primary indicators of tail risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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