Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20-39 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-99 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 100-119 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 180-199 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| 160-179 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 40-59 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 60-79 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
This market tracks the volume of posts Ted Cruz publishes on X during a specific week in May 2026, counting main feed posts, quote posts and reposts but excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed. The resolution will be determined by the Post Counter tool at xtracker.polymarket, with a settlement window closing on 19 May 2026 at 16:00 ET.
Cruz has maintained a consistent presence on X as a sitting US Senator, typically posting multiple times daily on legislative matters, political commentary and constituent engagement. Historical analysis of his posting patterns shows he averages between 15 and 25 posts per week during standard congressional sessions, though this varies considerably depending on whether major legislative votes, committee hearings or political events occur. The current 0% implied probability on the order book suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of zero posts during this specific week, which would represent a significant departure from his established baseline activity.
The May 12–19 window falls during the latter part of the congressional calendar, and traders should monitor whether Cruz is scheduled for recess, attending major committee proceedings or responding to breaking political developments. Any significant legislative activity, Senate votes on contentious bills or major political announcements during this period could materially affect posting frequency. The current probability formation reflects either extreme scepticism about market liquidity or a specific expectation of circumstances preventing posting activity during that week.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/tedcruz. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ted Cruz # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $199 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/tedcruz. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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