Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| Moderate Party (M) | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Left Party (V) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Green Party (MP) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Party B | — | |
| Party D | — | |
| Party F | — | |
Swedish parliamentary elections are scheduled for 13 September 2026, with the Riksdag's 349 seats to be contested. The winning party or coalition will be determined by which secures the most seats; in the event of a tie, the party receiving the greater number of valid votes prevails. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting market participants assess a high likelihood that elections will proceed as scheduled and a clear winner will emerge.
Sweden's political landscape has remained relatively stable across recent electoral cycles, with the centre-right Moderate Party and the Social Democrats alternating as the largest parliamentary forces. The 2022 election saw the Moderate-led coalition secure a narrow majority, though governing dynamics have shifted considerably since then. Historical precedent suggests Swedish elections typically produce decisive outcomes with identifiable plurality winners, supporting the elevated probability reflected in current trading.
Traders should monitor developments in government stability and polling trends through 2025 and into 2026. Recent statements from Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson regarding coalition cohesion and any early dissolution announcements would constitute material catalysts. The settlement window extends to 31 December 2026, providing a three-month buffer beyond the scheduled election date; however, the market's high probability discount reflects confidence that voting will occur on schedule and produce a clear parliamentary outcome without constitutional complications.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $89K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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