Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lucy Powell | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wes Streeting | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Angela Rayner | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Nigel Farage | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Andy Burnham | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Kemi Badenoch | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Yvette Cooper | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Shabana Mahmood | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The United Kingdom's next Prime Minister will be appointed by the Monarch if the current government falls or the sitting PM resigns before 1 January 2027. Rishi Sunak's Conservative government faces a general election by January 2025, with Labour holding a substantial polling lead. A change of government within the 2026 settlement window is therefore contingent on either an election result forcing a transition, or an unexpected resignation and replacement within the incumbent administration. The 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the relatively low likelihood of a formal PM transition occurring specifically within this narrow timeframe, given that most transitions cluster around election cycles rather than mid-term.
Historical precedent shows UK Prime Ministers typically change following general elections rather than through mid-term departures. Since 1997, only three sitting PMs have resigned without an election forcing their hand: Tony Blair in 2007, David Cameron in 2016, and Boris Johnson in 2022. Each succession occurred within weeks of the resignation. The current probability assessment suggests traders view a 2026 transition as unlikely unless the election cycle produces a new government, which would require Labour or another party to win the January 2025 election and then see that government collapse within twelve months—a historically rare occurrence.
Key catalysts include the timing of the 2025 general election, which must occur by 28 January 2025. Post-election government stability, any major political crisis affecting the incumbent PM, and unexpected health or personal circumstances would alter transition probabilities. Recent polling from December 2024 continues to show Labour with a commanding lead, making a government change in early 2025 the primary mechanism for resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5.2M in lifetime turnover and $494K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: