Trade: MI-02 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $40K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Market context
Michigan's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 93% probability that a Democrat will win the seat, reflecting substantial confidence in Democratic retention. This district, which encompasses parts of western Michigan including Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, has been represented by Democrat John Tlaib since 2023, though the seat has historically been competitive between the parties.
The 93% implied probability sits notably higher than the district's recent electoral history would suggest. MI-02 voted for Joe Biden by approximately 8 percentage points in 2020, and Tlaib won his 2024 re-election by roughly 7 points against Republican Paul Junge. Comparable Democratic-held seats in the Midwest with similar margins typically trade in the 75–85% range for retention in midterm cycles, where the party in power often faces headwinds. The elevated confidence here may reflect either stronger-than-typical Democratic structural advantages in this particular district or market participants' assessment of the Republican candidate field.
Key variables for traders include the formal announcement of Republican and Democratic nominees, expected in spring 2026, and any shifts in Michigan's broader political environment heading into the midterms. National economic conditions, presidential approval ratings, and turnout dynamics will likely move this market substantially. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, one day before the election itself, leaving minimal time for post-election resolution uncertainty.
Wikipedia Context
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Milhouse Van HoutenMilhouse Mussolini Van Houten is a fictional recurring character in the Fox animated television series The Simpsons voiced by Pamela Hayden until her retirement in 2025 and created by Matt Groening. Milhouse is Bart Simpson's childhood best friend in Mrs. Krabappel's fourth grade class at Springfield Elementary School. He is insecure, gullible, and is often
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Algy Millhouse
Algernon Edward Millhouse was an Australian rules footballer who played for the Melbourne Football Club and St Kilda Football Club in the Victorian Football League (VFL). He also played for the Norwood Football Club in the South Australian Football League (SAFL). He was captain-coach of Norwood for the 1914 season.
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Milhouse Doesn't Live Here Anymore
"Milhouse Doesn't Live Here Anymore" is the twelfth episode of the fifteenth season of the American animated television series The Simpsons. It originally aired on the Fox network in the United States on February 15, 2004. The episode was written by David and Julie Chambers and was directed by Matthew Nastuk.
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Robin Millhouse
Robin Rhodes Millhouse, QC was, at various times, the 39th Attorney-General of South Australia, the first Australian Democrats parliamentarian, and the Chief Justice of both Kiribati and Nauru and a judge of the High Court of Tuvalu.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MI-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$40K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MI-02 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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