Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rebecca Scriven | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Raissa Butkowski | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Person E | — | |
| Person K | — | |
| Person M | — | |
| Person N | — | |
| Person O | — | |
| Person U | — | |
A by-election for the House of Representatives seat of Farrer is scheduled for 9 May 2026. The Australian Electoral Commission will conduct the poll, with results expected on the same day. The seat currently sits in New South Wales and has been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1974. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current absence of a declared winner or consensus candidate positioning in public reporting as of the market's snapshot date.
Australian by-elections typically see strong incumbent-party performance when the seat is held by the governing coalition. Farrer has voted consistently for centre-right candidates across multiple electoral cycles, with margins generally exceeding 10 percentage points in recent federal elections. Historical precedent suggests the Liberal candidate will be favoured, though by-election dynamics can shift based on local grievances or candidate quality differentials. The current probability formation on Polymarket's order book likely reflects limited trading activity and information asymmetry rather than substantive forecasting of the outcome.
Key catalysts for traders include the formal announcement of candidates from major parties, expected several months before polling day, and any shifts in local or national political sentiment that might affect turnout or voting patterns. The AEC's official candidate nominations, typically released 10 weeks before the election, will provide concrete information on the field. Traders should monitor whether any sitting member's resignation or death triggered the by-election, as the circumstances surrounding the vacancy often influence voter sentiment and candidate recruitment strategies.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Farrer By-Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$458K in lifetime turnover and $83K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $201K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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