Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 20-39 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| 60-79 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 80-99 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 100-119 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 140-159 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 160-179 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <20 | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| 40-59 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market concerns the volume of posts CZ, the founder of Binance, will publish on X during a four-day window in May 2026. Only primary feed posts, quote posts and reposts count; replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. The resolution relies on the Post Counter tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, which captures posts within approximately five minutes of publication, including those subsequently deleted.
CZ's posting frequency on X has historically varied considerably depending on market conditions and regulatory developments affecting Binance. During periods of heightened regulatory scrutiny or market volatility, his activity typically increases as he addresses community concerns and provides operational updates. Conversely, during stable periods, his posting cadence tends to decline. The current 24% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders expect fewer than a threshold number of posts during this specific window, though the exact threshold for YES resolution is not specified in available market terms.
Traders should monitor regulatory announcements affecting Binance and broader cryptocurrency markets in the weeks preceding May 8, as these often trigger increased communication from CZ. Any major compliance developments, listing announcements or market disruptions could substantially alter his posting behaviour. Additionally, broader X platform changes or CZ's personal circumstances may influence activity levels. The order book currently reflects modest conviction that posting volume will remain relatively low, with the 24% probability indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether external events will drive increased engagement during this particular window.
The CM postcode area, also known as the Chelmsford postcode area, is a group of 25 postcode districts in England, within 16 post towns. These cover central Essex, plus a small part of east Hertfordshire and a very small part of the London Borough of Havering.
The CB postcode area, also known as the Cambridge postcode area, is a group of sixteen postcode districts in the east of England, within five post towns. These cover much of south and east Cambridgeshire, plus parts of west Suffolk and north-west Essex, and a very small part of Norfolk.
The CH postcode area, also known as the Chester postcode area, is a group of 37 postcode districts in North West England and North East Wales. Together the districts cover west Cheshire, the Wirral part of Merseyside, and east Flintshire. Its thirteen post towns are Bagillt, Birkenhead, Buckley, Chester, Deeside, Ellesmere Port, Flint, Holywell, Mold, Neston
The CR postcode area, also known as the Croydon postcode area, is a group of eight postcode districts in England, within ten post towns. These cover parts of southern Greater London and north-east Surrey.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/cz_binance. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CZ # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/cz_binance. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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