Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On March 18, 2026, rumors emerged that the U.S. federal government had registered the domains “aliens.gov” and "alien.gov." This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially announces or confirms that “aliens.gov” or "alien.gov" is intended for immigration-related purposes, or if the website becomes publicly accessible and its content is clearly and predominantly related to U.S. immigration or information for or about non-citizens (“aliens”), by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For announcements to qualify, they must be official.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | 47% YES | 53% NO |
In March 2026, reports surfaced that the U.S. federal government had registered the domains "aliens.gov" and "alien.gov," sparking speculation about their intended use. The market resolves affirmatively only if the government makes an official announcement confirming immigration-related purposes or if the website launches publicly with predominantly immigration-focused content by year-end 2026. The 47% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether these registrations represent a genuine policy initiative or routine domain acquisition without public-facing immigration applications.
Historical precedent suggests government domain registrations often remain dormant or serve purposes unrelated to their literal names. The Department of Homeland Security and State Department maintain numerous specialised immigration portals under established branding (USCIS.gov, travel.state.gov), making a new "aliens.gov" immigration site somewhat unconventional. However, the Trump administration's 2025 immigration enforcement focus and rhetoric around terminology creates plausible conditions for such a rebranding effort, though no credible reporting has confirmed official intent as of late 2026.
Traders should monitor official announcements from DHS, the White House, or USCIS directly. Any press releases, congressional testimony, or budget allocations mentioning these domains would constitute material catalysts. The settlement window extends to December 31, 2026, providing roughly ten months for either confirmation or the emergence of alternative explanations for the registrations. Absence of official confirmation by autumn 2026 would likely shift probability downward substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$143K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $66K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 47%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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