Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| National Party | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Green Party | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| New Zealand First Party | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party G | — | |
| Party I | — | |
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026 to determine which party or coalition will command the House of Representatives. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 34% probability that a single party will win the most seats outright, with the remaining 66% distributed across alternative outcomes including various coalition scenarios and the "Other" resolution category. This probability reflects expectations around whether any party can secure a plurality in the 120-seat chamber under the mixed-member proportional voting system.
Historical precedent suggests outright single-party victories are uncommon under New Zealand's electoral system. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, only two elections have produced a party with an outright plurality: Labour in 1999 and National in 2008. More typically, the largest party has governed through coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements. The current Parliament, elected in 2023, saw National win 48 seats to Labour's 34, with neither approaching a majority, necessitating coalition formation. This historical pattern of fragmented results underpins the crowd's assessment that a single-party plurality remains a minority-probability outcome.
Traders should monitor polling releases and leadership changes through 2026, as these will shape expectations around party consolidation. The Electoral Commission's official candidate nominations and campaign finance disclosures will provide concrete signals closer to the election. Any significant shifts in the governing coalition's popularity or internal fractures within opposition parties could materially alter the probability of a single-party outcome, particularly if one party demonstrates capacity to absorb support from smaller parties or coalition partners.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Zealand legislative election winner?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for new zealand election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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