Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| The Odyssey | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Movie K | — | |
| Movie L | — | |
| Movie M | — | |
| Movie Z | — | |
The market is pricing the probability that a single film will generate more domestic box office revenue in its opening week than any competitor throughout 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 4% probability, suggesting traders view this outcome as unlikely relative to the baseline expectation of distributed success across multiple releases.
Historical precedent indicates that opening-week dominance requires either a franchise tentpole with established audience momentum or a surprise breakout. In 2025, films like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine demonstrated the capacity to generate £100+ million opening weeks, though such performances remain concentrated among a narrow set of releases. The 4% probability reflects scepticism that any single 2026 release will substantially exceed the opening-week performance of its nearest competitor, given the typical distribution of major studio releases across the calendar year and the competitive dynamics of the summer and holiday windows.
Traders should monitor studio release schedules, franchise announcements, and pre-release tracking data throughout 2026. Marvel, DC, and major animated sequels typically command the largest opening weeks; any unexpected delays, repositioning, or underperformance by anticipated frontrunners would materially shift probabilities. Box office tracking firms including Deadline and Variety publish weekly forecasts that provide early signals of relative competitive positioning. The resolution depends on final figures from The Numbers' weekly box office tables, meaning provisional studio estimates will not settle the market until actual data is published.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $280 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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