Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jon Bonck | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| Craig Goralski | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Barrett McNabb | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Jennifer Sundt | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Jeff Yuna | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Texas's 38th congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the general election. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability that a Republican nominee will be formally announced by the settlement deadline of 26 May 2026, suggesting traders assess minimal risk of a failed nomination process or extended vacancy.
Historical precedent supports this confidence level. Republican primary nominations in Texas congressional districts routinely conclude without significant delays, with nominees typically formalised within weeks of primary voting. The 5% tail risk priced into the market likely reflects edge cases such as unexpected nominee withdrawal, legal challenges to candidacy, or procedural complications—scenarios that remain statistically uncommon in Texas Republican politics. Comparable 2024 midterm cycles saw near-universal nomination completion across Texas's 36 House districts.
Key catalysts for traders centre on candidate announcements and filing deadlines preceding the March primary. Texas's candidate filing period typically closes in December 2025, creating a critical window for assessing field strength and potential consolidation. Any unexpected candidate withdrawals, disqualifications, or contested nomination disputes between March and May could shift probabilities materially. The Republican National Committee's official designation process, referenced as the resolution source, generally formalises within days of primary results, though traders should monitor any procedural irregularities reported through official RNC channels.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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