Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lamont McClure | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Lewis Shupe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
| Bob Brooks | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 19 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 3% probability that a Democratic nominee will be formally announced, suggesting traders assess either a very low likelihood of a competitive primary or significant uncertainty around whether a candidate will emerge by the November 2026 resolution deadline. This low probability reflects the market's baseline expectation that either no Democratic nominee materialises or the resolution criteria remain unmet.
Historical patterns in Pennsylvania congressional primaries show that competitive districts typically attract multiple candidates and generate clear nominees well before May primary dates. PA-07, a swing district that has alternated partisan control, would normally expect organised party backing and candidate recruitment by early 2026. The 3% reading suggests traders view the absence of announced candidates or campaign infrastructure at this stage as a meaningful signal of low primary activity, though this could shift substantially once the 2024 general election concludes and 2026 campaign cycles formally commence.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements from Democratic Party figures and state party coordination statements expected in late 2025 and early 2026. Traders should monitor Pennsylvania Democratic Party communications and federal election commission filings for candidate registration. The resolution mechanism's reliance on consensus from official Democratic sources means that ambiguity around nominee status—such as late withdrawals or contested designations—could affect settlement interpretation near the May deadline.
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party (PADems) is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania. It is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania and is the largest political party in the state. Its chair is Eugene DePasquale.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $594 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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