Trade: North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $21K
- Total Volume
- $57K
- 24h Volume
- $26
- Open Interest
- $12K
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Republican | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Market context
North Carolina will hold a U.S. Senate election in November 2026 as part of the midterm cycle. The seat is currently held by Democrat Cheri Beasley, who won a special election in 2022 to complete the term of Richard Burr. The 83% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in a Democratic victory, though this reflects current positioning rather than a final outcome with two years remaining before the general election.
North Carolina's Senate races have become increasingly competitive over the past decade. In 2020, Republican Thom Tillis narrowly retained his seat with 50.7% of the vote against Democrat Cal Cunningham in a race that tightened significantly in the final months. The 2022 special election saw Beasley win with 51.8% against Republican Ted Budd in a low-turnout contest, suggesting the state remains closely divided at the statewide level despite its Republican lean in presidential elections. Historical precedent indicates that midterm dynamics often differ substantially from special election conditions.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and recruitment efforts from both parties over the coming months, as field composition significantly influences race dynamics. The state's demographic shifts, particularly in urban areas like Wake and Mecklenburg counties, will shape turnout assumptions. National political conditions and approval ratings heading into 2026 will likely prove more consequential than current positioning, given the substantial time horizon. Any shifts in candidate quality or unexpected retirements could rapidly alter market pricing.
Wikipedia Context
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2008 North Carolina Senate electionThe 2008 North Carolina Senate election was held on November 5, 2008, to elect members to all fifty seats in the North Carolina Senate. The primary election was held on May 6, 2008, with a primary run-off occurring on June 24, 2008.
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2000 North Carolina Senate election
The 2000 North Carolina Senate election were held on November 7, 2000, to elect members to all fifty seats in the North Carolina Senate. The election coincided with the elections for other offices including the presidency, governorship, U.S. House of Representatives, Council of State, and state house. The primary election was held on May 2, 2000.
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2006 North Carolina Senate election
The 2006 North Carolina Senate election was held on November 7, 2006, to elect members to all fifty seats in the North Carolina Senate. The election coincided with the elections for other offices, including the U.S. House of Representatives and state house. The primary election was held on May 2, 2006, with primary run-offs occurring on May 30 and September
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2004 North Carolina Senate election
The 2004 North Carolina Senate elections were held on November 2, 2004, to elect members to all fifty seats in the North Carolina Senate. The election coincided with the elections for other offices including the Presidency, U.S. Senate, Governorship, U.S. House of Representatives, Council of State, and state house. The primary election was held on July 20, 2
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "North Carolina Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$57K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "North Carolina Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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