Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 6th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Michael Stansfield | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Thien Ho | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Kevin Kiley | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Martha Guerrero | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Richard Pan | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Tyler Vandenberg | 8% YES | 93% NO |
California's 6th congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026 as part of the state's midterm cycle. The market currently prices the listed candidate's advancement to the general election at 25% implied probability, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about their viability in what remains a competitive race. This probability is formed from the current order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in both the candidate's baseline support and the dynamics of a multi-candidate primary field.
Historical performance in CA-06 provides context for reading this probability. The district has shifted considerably over recent cycles, with representation changing hands and partisan lean fluctuating based on demographic and political realignment. Primary advancement typically requires either strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, or both—factors that vary significantly across candidates. In California's top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party, meaning a candidate can progress with a plurality rather than a majority, which affects how traders should model vote-splitting scenarios.
Key catalysts ahead include candidate filing deadlines, campaign finance disclosures, and polling data releases in the months preceding the primary. Fundraising announcements and endorsements from state or national figures will likely move the order book materially. The settlement window closes on 2 June 2026 at midnight, with resolution dependent on official California Secretary of State records. Any late candidate entries or withdrawals before the election could shift the competitive landscape substantially, making tracker updates from the SOS website essential for traders managing positions into the primary date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-06 Primary Winners" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $366 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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