Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Popular (PP) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <50 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 53-55 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 59-61 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 50-52 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 56-58 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| 62+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Andalusia's autonomous parliament will hold elections on 17 May 2026, with this market tracking the seat count the Partido Popular secures in the 109-seat unicameral legislature. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 2% probability for the PP's seat range, reflecting market participants' assessment of the party's electoral prospects against competing formations including the Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSOE), Vox, and the emerging left-wing alternatives. The settlement window closes at the election date, with any unresolved results by 31 December 2026 defaulting to the lowest bracket.
The PP's performance in Andalusia provides a critical barometer for centre-right strength in Spain's most populous autonomous community. In the 2022 general election, the PP won 33 of Spain's 350 congressional seats from Andalusia, whilst in the 2023 general election this rose to 37 seats, demonstrating the party's consolidation in the region. The 2022 Andalusian regional election saw the PP secure 58 of 109 seats, establishing a clear baseline for evaluating seat projections heading into 2026.
Traders should monitor polling releases from firms including CIS and Metroscopia, which typically publish quarterly surveys tracking regional sentiment. Leadership changes within the PP or PSOE, shifts in Vox's political positioning, or unexpected coalition negotiations could materially alter seat distribution. Economic conditions in Andalusia—particularly unemployment rates and infrastructure investment announcements—historically influence voting patterns in the region.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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