Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 4 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $1.8M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-59 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-99 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 120-139 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 160-179 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 200-219 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 240-259 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 280-299 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
Elon Musk’s posting rate on X over this seven-day window is the underlying event, with only main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts counting. The settlement window runs from 19 May 12:00 pm ET to 26 May 12:00 pm ET, so the market is effectively measuring whether his public timeline stays unusually active through the middle of the week. On Polymarket, the order book is currently pricing 0% for YES, which means the displayed implied probability is not being formed by active bids at the moment, but by an empty or effectively one-sided book; in practice, that leaves the reference price more vulnerable to fresh orders than markets with deeper two-way interest.
Historical trading on similar Musk tweet-count markets has tended to cluster around clearly defined activity bands rather than a single point estimate, with volume often building as the window progresses and traders infer his cadence from recent posting behaviour. Recent comparable markets have shown material turnover, including a May 19–26 market that drew substantial volume, suggesting participants do pay for short-horizon information on his posting frequency. For context, lines-based commentary on a similar bracket market described his baseline as roughly 8–12 posts per day, which, if sustained, would imply a high weekly total even before any burst of quote-posting or reposting.
The main catalysts are straightforward: any product announcement, regulatory comment, political intervention, or company-related news that prompts Musk to post repeatedly. Traders should also watch his own schedule and any live events tied to Tesla, SpaceX, xAI or X, as these are the sorts of dependencies that can drive short bursts of activity. Musk has recently been in the news for a jury ruling on his OpenAI claims, reported by NBC on 20 May, and for the prospect of a SpaceX public offering discussed in the same broadcast; either could feed further commentary on X if he chooses to respond.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 26 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://x.com/elonmusk), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics — a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1.8M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.5M in lifetime turnover and $1.8M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.5M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts — a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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