Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any Lebanese territory between January 4 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over Lebanese territory they had not previously claimed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The question centres on whether Israel will formally annex Lebanese territory during the first half of 2025. This would require an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over land not previously claimed. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current market consensus that such an action is extraordinarily unlikely within this six-month window, though the depth of liquidity at this price point should be examined before sizing positions.
Historical precedent suggests annexation requires sustained military control and political will to formalise territorial claims. Israel's 1967 annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights followed military victories, whilst the West Bank settlements remain unannexed despite decades of occupation. Lebanon's weak state capacity and the complexity of international law make unilateral annexation diplomatically costly. Current cross-border tensions, whilst elevated, have not escalated to the point where Israeli leadership has signalled annexation as a policy objective, distinguishing this from scenarios where such rhetoric precedes action.
Traders should monitor statements from Israeli government officials regarding territorial ambitions, any major escalation in cross-border military operations, and international diplomatic responses. The Lebanese government's capacity to negotiate or resist would also shape outcomes. Recent reporting indicates Israeli operations in southern Lebanon remain focused on Hezbollah disruption rather than territorial acquisition, though military dynamics can shift rapidly. Any formal annexation announcement would likely follow explicit policy statements from senior Israeli figures, providing potential early warning signals before market resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 16 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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