Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Megyn Kelly | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Pope Leo XIV | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Barack Obama | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Pam Bondi | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Melania Trump | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Tucker Carlson | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| Candace Owens | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Joe Biden | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market assesses whether Donald Trump will publicly insult a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026. The resolution criteria capture a broad range of negative personal or professional attacks—from derogatory nicknames to characterisations of weakness or failure—made through any public channel. The 40% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Trump will direct such remarks toward this particular person over the next eighteen months.
Trump's pattern of public insults across his political career provides substantial historical grounding for pricing. During his presidency and since, he regularly attacked political opponents, media figures, and former allies through social media, rallies, and press statements. The consistency of this behaviour across different contexts and targets suggests a baseline probability that any given individual in his political orbit faces meaningful risk of public criticism. However, the probability varies significantly based on the target's proximity to Trump, their current relevance to political discourse, and whether they occupy roles that typically invite his commentary.
Catalysts to monitor include Trump's campaign schedule, any legal proceedings involving the named individual, and shifts in Republican primary or general election dynamics that might elevate the person's profile. Media coverage of the individual's statements or actions—particularly if critical of Trump—historically correlates with increased likelihood of public response. The timeframe extends through the 2026 midterm cycle, when Trump's involvement in candidate endorsements and party messaging will likely intensify, creating additional opportunities for public commentary on various political figures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$90K in lifetime turnover and $50K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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