Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Beth Davidson | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Mike Sacks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| John Cappello | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
The Democratic Party will select its nominee for New York's 17th congressional district on 23 June 2026. This seat, currently held by Representative Mike Lawler (Republican), is considered competitive in the broader midterm environment. The primary will determine which Democrat advances to the general election, with the nomination locked in regardless of any subsequent candidate changes before November's general vote.
New York's 17th has shifted considerably in recent cycles. The district, which spans parts of Westchester and Rockland counties, voted for Joe Biden by approximately 3 points in 2020 but swung Republican in 2022, electing Lawler with 52 per cent of the vote. Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries in swing districts often coalesce around establishment-backed candidates with proven fundraising capacity and name recognition, though insurgent campaigns can gain traction if the frontrunner appears vulnerable. The current 41 per cent implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about which candidate will emerge as the consensus choice among party activists and donors.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through late 2025 and early 2026, particularly regarding endorsements from county Democratic committees and labour unions, which typically signal momentum in New York primaries. The New York State Democratic Committee's formal endorsement process, usually concluded by spring 2026, will provide crucial clarity on establishment positioning. Fundraising disclosures and polling data, if released publicly, will shape market expectations as the June primary approaches. Any major candidate withdrawals or late entrants could substantially shift probabilities in the months preceding the vote.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$60K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $27 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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