Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| James Comey | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| John Brennan | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| James Clapper | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Adam Schiff | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Hillary Clinton | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Loretta Lynch | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Candace Owens | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 12% YES | 89% NO |
The market is pricing the likelihood that a named political figure will be arrested and taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities before the end of 2026. The 11% implied probability reflects current order book activity on Polymarket, where traders are balancing the risk of formal charges, prosecution timelines, and the political circumstances that might accelerate or delay any arrest.
Historical precedent suggests arrest probabilities for sitting or recently-departed political figures remain low absent imminent indictment. The cases of Michael Cohen (arrested 2018, convicted 2019) and Paul Manafort (arrested 2017, convicted 2018) occurred within months of formal charges being filed. More recently, the timeline from indictment to arrest has compressed significantly—Steve Bannon was arrested within weeks of federal charges in 2022. The current 11% probability implies traders assess either a material gap between any potential charges and actual custody, or meaningful uncertainty about whether prosecution will proceed to arrest stage within the specified window.
Traders should monitor federal and state prosecutorial announcements, grand jury activity, and any scheduled court appearances that might signal imminent charges. Recent reporting on ongoing investigations into various political figures provides the factual backdrop, though arrest probabilities depend on prosecutorial decisions rather than investigation existence alone. The calendar matters substantially: any charges filed in late 2025 or early 2026 would compress the timeline for arrest, whilst charges filed after mid-2026 would face practical constraints in meeting the December 2026 deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be arrested before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$70K in lifetime turnover and $91K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $795 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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