Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alabama | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Arizona | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| California | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| Connecticut | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| Florida | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hawaii | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Illinois | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Iowa | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Whether Donald Trump will physically visit a given U.S. state during 2026 depends on his travel schedule as sitting president, campaign activities, and official duties. The market resolves positively if Trump enters the state's terrestrial territory at any point between 1 January and 31 December 2026, with airspace passage alone insufficient for resolution. Current order book pricing implies a 25% probability, reflecting uncertainty about both Trump's movements and the specific state in question.
Historical precedent suggests sitting presidents visit most states over a four-year term, though frequency varies considerably by state. Trump's first presidency (2017–2021) saw him visit all fifty states, though some received minimal attention whilst others hosted multiple rallies and official events. The distribution was uneven: swing states and those with significant Republican support received disproportionate visits, whilst some states saw only brief stopovers. This historical pattern suggests the baseline probability should account for whether the listed state is a swing state, has major population centres, or holds strategic political importance.
Traders should monitor Trump's announced campaign schedule, which typically intensifies in election years. The 2026 midterm cycle will likely drive substantial travel, particularly to competitive districts and states. Official presidential schedules, published by the White House, provide advance notice of most visits, though campaign events may be announced with shorter lead times. Recent reporting indicates Trump maintains an active travel agenda, making visits to numerous states probable, though the specific state in question materially affects the outcome.
White Hispanic and Latino Americans, also called Euro-Hispanics, Euro-Latinos, White Hispanics, or White Latinos, are Americans who identify as white people of European descent with roots in Spain or Latin America.
WSFN is an interpreted programming language for controlling robots created by Li-Chen Wang. It was designed to be as small as possible, a "tiny" language, similar to Wang's earlier effort, Palo Alto Tiny BASIC. WSFN was first published in Dr. Dobb's Journal in September 1977.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$249K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $733 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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