Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| United States | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Italy | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| The Netherlands | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Japan | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Germany | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Belgium | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Finland | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Austria | 10% YES | 91% NO |
The question concerns whether additional countries will formally recognise Palestine as a state between now and the end of 2026. Currently, 146 UN member states recognise Palestine, with the most recent recognitions occurring sporadically—Jordan and Egypt in the 1980s, followed by a cluster of African and Latin American nations in the 2010s. The market's 6% implied probability reflects the substantial barriers to new recognitions within the next two years, given that most countries with strategic incentive to recognise have already done so.
Historical precedent suggests recognition clusters around major diplomatic shifts or UN votes rather than occurring steadily. The 2012 UN General Assembly upgrade to non-member observer status prompted several recognitions, whilst the 2014–2015 period saw a wave of African and Caribbean nations follow suit. However, the pace has slowed considerably since then, with fewer than five new recognitions annually in recent years. Major holdouts include most Western nations, whose recognition would carry significant diplomatic weight but remains politically constrained by relationships with Israel.
Traders should monitor potential catalysts including UN General Assembly resolutions, developments in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and shifts in regional geopolitics affecting countries like Turkey or Gulf states. The International Court of Justice's ongoing advisory opinion on Palestinian rights, concluded in July 2024, may influence some nations' positions, though formal recognition remains distinct from legal opinions. Additionally, changes in government across key nations—particularly in the Global South—could alter recognition calculus, though such transitions rarely prioritise Palestinian statehood as a primary policy objective.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$616K in lifetime turnover and $111K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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