Trade: When will Trump leave China?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $54K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Before May 13 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 13 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| May 14 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| May 15 | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| May 16 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| May 17 | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| May 18 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| After May 18 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether Donald Trump will visit mainland China before 20 May 2026 and, if so, on which calendar day he departs. The settlement hinges on Trump physically entering Chinese territory and subsequently leaving it during a single visit window. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any announced or scheduled visit, with traders currently pricing near-zero conviction that such a trip materialises within the timeframe.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Trump visited China in November 2017 as sitting president, a five-day state visit that included Beijing, Xi'an and Shanghai. No sitting US president had visited China since 2011. The political relationship has since deteriorated markedly, with trade tensions, technology restrictions and geopolitical competition intensifying. A comparable reference point might be Nixon's 1972 opening visit, though that occurred under vastly different diplomatic circumstances. The current 0% probability reflects scepticism about whether conditions permit such a visit, rather than technical market illiquidity.
Traders should monitor announcements from Trump's team regarding international travel plans, statements from the Chinese government on diplomatic engagement, and developments in US-China relations. Recent reporting on Trump's post-presidency activities shows focus on domestic political matters rather than international diplomacy. Any credible reporting of scheduled diplomatic talks or state visit preparations would likely shift the order book substantially. The settlement window's compression—less than two years from now—means the probability remains sensitive to near-term geopolitical shifts or unexpected diplomatic initiatives.
Wikipedia Context
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Trump RevealedTrump Revealed: An American Journey of Ambition, Ego, Money, and Power is a biography of Donald Trump, written by Michael Kranish and Marc Fisher. It was first published in 2016 in hardcover format by Scribner. It was released in ebook format that year and paperback format in 2017 under the title Trump Revealed: The Definitive Biography of the 45th President
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2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations
On April 12, 2025, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Trump set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement. After the deadline passed without an agreement, Israel launched numerous strikes against
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World of Wonder (company)
World of Wonder Productions (WOW) is an American production company founded in 1991 by filmmakers Randy Barbato and Fenton Bailey. Based in Los Angeles, California, the company specializes in documentary television and film productions with a key focus on LGBTQ topics. Together, Barbato and Bailey have produced programming through World of Wonder for HBO, Br
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Travel bans under the Trump administrations
As the president of the United States, Donald Trump has taken several executive actions restricting entry into the United States by certain foreign nationals. His first-term travel bans affected 7 of the 49 Muslim-majority countries, were challenged in court, and were criticized by his opponents as targeting Muslim nationals.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "When will Trump leave China?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "When will Trump leave China?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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