Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Darrell Day | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Monty Montanez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate I | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate K | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate O | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ryan Binkley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Texas's 32nd congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for a Republican nominee being selected, suggesting either that traders anticipate the seat remaining uncontested on the Republican side or that the market has insufficient liquidity and participation to establish meaningful pricing. The settlement window extends to 26 May 2026, providing a two-month buffer after the primary vote to confirm the official nominee through Republican Party sources and the RNC.
Historical precedent indicates that Republican primaries in Texas congressional districts typically produce nominees without significant disruption, though competitive multi-candidate races do occur. TX-32 encompasses parts of Dallas and surrounding areas; the district's partisan lean and incumbent status will shape candidate recruitment. Traders should monitor candidate announcements beginning in late 2025, as formal entry deadlines approach. The RNC's official candidate filings and state-level Republican Party communications will serve as primary resolution sources.
Key catalysts include the Texas filing deadline for candidates (typically several months before the primary), any incumbent announcements regarding retirement or re-election, and major donor or party establishment endorsements. Recent redistricting and demographic shifts in Dallas-area districts have altered competitive dynamics in Texas House races, making current district composition relevant to assessing nominee likelihood.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-32 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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