Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The current 95% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects overwhelming confidence in a Republican victory in this seat. OK-03 is a solidly conservative district that has consistently favoured Republican candidates in recent cycles, with the seat currently held by Republican Frank Lucas, who has represented the district since 1994.
Historical context suggests this confidence is well-calibrated. Oklahoma's 3rd district has voted Republican in every House election since 2000, and the district's partisan lean—measured by presidential performance—sits firmly in Republican territory. The 2020 presidential election saw Donald Trump win the district with approximately 72% of the vote, substantially above his national performance. Comparable safe Republican seats in rural and semi-rural America have seen occasional Democratic gains only under extraordinary circumstances, such as retirements combined with unusually weak Republican recruitment or significant local scandals.
Key variables for traders to monitor include candidate announcements and recruitment decisions, particularly whether Lucas seeks re-election or retires. Primary dynamics within the Republican field could affect general election margins but are unlikely to alter the fundamental partisan outcome. National political conditions in 2026, including congressional approval ratings and midterm historical patterns, will influence turnout and enthusiasm, though these factors typically move safe seats less dramatically than competitive districts. Any significant demographic shifts or local economic developments in the district would represent material information warranting reassessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OK-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$82K in lifetime turnover and $37K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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