Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? | 22% YES | 79% NO |
A motion of no-confidence against the UK government would require 20% of Labour MPs to submit letters to the 1922 Committee chair, triggering a ballot among the parliamentary party. Such a vote has not occurred against a sitting Prime Minister since 1995, when John Major faced a challenge from within the Conservative Party. The current 23% implied probability on Polymarket reflects genuine structural vulnerabilities: Labour holds a 99-seat majority from the 2024 election, meaning defections or abstentions from roughly 50 backbenchers could theoretically create conditions for a challenge, though the threshold for triggering a vote remains high and party discipline typically holds.
Historical precedent suggests no-confidence votes are rare events tied to severe party fracture or electoral collapse. Major's 1995 challenge emerged after years of by-election losses and internal division over Europe; the motion failed 218–89. More recently, Theresa May faced a confidence vote in December 2018 following the botched Brexit negotiations, surviving 200–117. The current Labour government faces potential catalysts including economic deterioration, major policy reversals, or scandals affecting Starmer directly, though the party's recent election victory and relative unity argue against near-term challenges.
Traders should monitor quarterly economic data releases, parliamentary rebellions on flagship legislation, and any significant polling collapses. The government's fiscal announcements and public sector negotiations through 2025 will test backbench loyalty. The order book currently prices the event at roughly one-in-four odds, suggesting markets view the combination of Labour discipline and Starmer's position as protective factors against the formal triggering mechanism, despite the political volatility inherent in a five-year parliament.
A motion or vote of no confidence is a motion and corresponding vote thereon in a deliberative assembly as to whether an officer is deemed fit to continue to occupy their office. The no-confidence vote is a defining constitutional element of a parliamentary system and its derivatives, in which the government's/executive's mandate rests upon the continued sup
A no-confidence motion against Imran Khan occurred on 10 April 2022 and led to his removal as the prime minister of Pakistan, as opposition parties joined forces to present the motion, which the majority passed in the National Assembly. The next day, on 11 April, Shehbaz Sharif of the PML(N) was elected prime minister by the assembly. Khan became the first p
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 22%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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