Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Party X | — | |
| National Party | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Green Party | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| New Zealand First Party | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party G | — | |
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026 to determine the composition of the 120-seat House of Representatives. This market resolves to whichever party or coalition wins the second-largest number of seats, with ties broken by total valid party list votes. The settlement window extends to 31 October 2027, allowing time for any post-election negotiations or recounts to conclude before final resolution.
New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system typically produces multi-party parliaments, making second-place finishes strategically significant. The 2023 election saw Labour finish second with 34 seats behind the National Party's 48, whilst the Green Party took 15 seats. Historical patterns show the second-placed party often plays a crucial coalition role in government formation. Current Polymarket order book activity remains minimal ahead of the formal campaign period, meaning any live probability will reflect early positioning rather than consolidated market consensus.
Key catalysts include the official campaign launch (typically four weeks before polling day), quarterly polling releases from Colmar Brunton and 1News Kantar, and any major policy announcements from the Labour, National, and Green parties. Economic data—particularly inflation and employment figures—typically influences voter sentiment in the months preceding the election. The Reserve Bank's interest rate decisions through 2026 will shape the economic narrative. Traders should monitor coalition arithmetic discussions, which historically intensify in the final weeks as parties position themselves for post-election negotiations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Zealand Election: 2nd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$166 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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