Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Karishma Manzur | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Chris Pappas | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
New Hampshire will hold a Democratic primary election for its US Senate seat in 2026, with the winner determined by the state party's official results announcement. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 4% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether a competitive primary contest will actually materialise or whether the nomination process will consolidate around a single candidate before ballots are cast.
Democratic Senate primaries in New Hampshire have historically been rare events. The state's last contested Democratic Senate primary occurred in 2008, when Jeanne Shaheen faced Tom Grady before winning the general election. In 2014 and 2020, Shaheen ran unopposed in the primary despite facing competitive general election races. This historical pattern of uncontested primaries explains the low probability currently priced into the market—the baseline expectation is that New Hampshire Democrats will either rally behind an incumbent or frontrunner, avoiding a divisive primary fight.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement window closing September 2026. Key dates include the formal candidate filing deadline, typically several months before the primary election, and any early endorsements from state party leadership or national figures that might signal consolidation. Recent reporting on potential 2026 Senate races remains limited, but developments in New Hampshire Democratic politics, retirements or primary challenges to any incumbent, and national party dynamics could shift incentives towards a contested primary. The absence of a clear frontrunner or sitting senator would increase the probability of multiple candidates entering the race.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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