Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jonathan Bush | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Robert Charles | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| James Libby | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Ben Midgley | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Ken Capron | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| David Jones | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Owen McCarthy | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Maine will hold a Republican primary for governor on 9 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 8% probability that a Republican candidate will win this primary, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether a contested race will materialise and, if so, which candidate might prevail. This low probability suggests traders are pricing in either a low likelihood of a competitive Republican primary or significant fragmentation among potential candidates.
Maine's Republican primary landscape has historically been shaped by the state's moderate political leanings and the strength of independent candidates in statewide races. Governor Paul LePage, a Republican, won election in 2010 and 2014 but lost his 2022 re-election bid to Democrat Janet Mills. The state's Republican Party has faced organisational challenges in recent years, and potential candidates for 2026 have not yet formally declared. The low implied probability reflects the early stage of the cycle and uncertainty about candidate recruitment and party enthusiasm.
Traders should monitor formal candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, as well as any shifts in Maine Republican Party leadership or endorsements. The Maine Secretary of State's office will establish official filing deadlines and primary procedures, typically announced in late 2025. National Republican recruitment efforts and the political environment heading into the 2026 midterm cycle will also influence whether a strong candidate emerges. Local reporting from Maine media outlets will provide early signals of candidate viability and primary competitiveness.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $119 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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