Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <5 | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| 5-9 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 10-14 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 15-19 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 20-24 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30-34 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 35-39 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-44 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns the posting frequency of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on X during an eight-day window in May 2026. The resolution hinges on counting main feed posts, reposts and quote posts via the Polymark tracker, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed. The current order book implies 87% probability that Khamenei will post at least once during this period, reflecting strong confidence in activity rather than silence.
Khamenei's posting patterns have historically been sporadic but consistent. His account has operated since 2012, with activity varying considerably based on domestic political events, international developments and religious observances. During comparable eight-day windows, the account typically generates between zero and four posts, though periods coinciding with significant anniversaries or crises have seen elevated activity. The 87% probability suggests traders view a single post as highly likely, whilst the remaining 13% reflects genuine uncertainty about whether circumstances might suppress all activity during this specific interval.
Traders should monitor the Iranian political calendar for May 2026, particularly any scheduled commemorations or state announcements that might prompt official messaging. The resolution window falls outside major Islamic holidays in that month, reducing one category of predictable catalyst. International developments affecting Iran—sanctions announcements, diplomatic events or regional tensions—could drive either increased or decreased posting behaviour. The xtracker.polymark source provides real-time capture of posts, though the five-minute window for deletion capture introduces minor technical risk to resolution accuracy.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/khamenei_ir. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Khamenei # posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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