Trade: How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $21
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| 2 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 4 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| 6 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 7+ | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| 0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 1 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 3 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 5 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
Market context
The market concerns the total number of cabinet-level departures from Donald Trump's administration during 2025 and 2026. The cabinet definition encompasses the Vice President, heads of the 15 executive departments, the EPA Administrator, the Chief of Staff, and the Director of National Intelligence. Any announcement of resignation or removal before 31 December 2026 counts, regardless of effective date. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 24% probability that additional departures will occur beyond some baseline threshold, reflecting trader expectations about personnel stability through the end of 2026.
Historical precedent suggests cabinet turnover varies significantly by administration. Trump's first term (2017–2021) saw approximately 91% of cabinet positions experience turnover, with roughly 15 departures across the full four years—substantially higher than the Obama administration's rate of approximately 50% turnover. The Reagan administration saw roughly 9 departures over eight years. These comparisons indicate that Trump administrations have historically experienced elevated cabinet churn, though the specific threshold this market uses to define "more departures" remains the key variable traders are pricing.
Catalysts affecting the probability include policy implementation challenges, congressional confirmation dynamics for any replacements, and public controversies involving cabinet members. Recent reporting on Trump's second-term appointments and early governance patterns will shape trader expectations. The market runs through year-end 2026, spanning a full two years of potential personnel changes, making the resolution sensitive to both immediate staffing decisions and longer-term administrative friction.
Wikipedia Context
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Many More RoadsMany More Roads is the third studio album by Jamaican reggae artist Ky-Mani Marley. It was released on May 29, 2001, through Artists Only! Records. Production was handled by Lincoln Ward, Michael Coburn, Christopher Garvey, Clifton Dillon and Derrick Barnett, with Tyrone Smith serving as executive producer. It was nominated for a Grammy Award for Best Reggae
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Many-worlds interpretationThe many-worlds interpretation (MWI) is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that the universal wavefunction is objectively real, and that there is no wave function collapse. This implies that all possible outcomes of quantum measurements are physically realized in different "worlds". The evolution of reality as a whole in MWI is rigidly deter
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The Many Loves of Dobie GillisThe Many Loves of Dobie Gillis is an American sitcom starring Dwayne Hickman that aired on CBS from September 29, 1959, to June 5, 1963. The series was adapted from the Dobie Gillis short stories written by Max Shulman since 1945 and first collected in 1951 under the same title as the subsequent TV series, which drew directly on the stories in some scripts.
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Mandy MooreAmanda Leigh Moore is an American singer-songwriter and actress. She rose to fame with her 1999 debut single "Candy", which peaked at number 41 on the Billboard Hot 100. Her debut studio album, So Real (1999), received Platinum certification by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). The title track from her reissue of So Real, I Wanna Be With
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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