Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 20–23 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| 28–31 | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| 36–39 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| <20 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 24–27 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 32–35 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 40+ | 15% YES | 85% NO |
The 2026 midterm elections will determine which Democratic House members seek reelection to their seats. This market tracks the total count of Democrats who announce retirement, decline to run for their current seat, or pursue different offices instead. The settlement window closes on 31 August 2026, allowing roughly two months after the November election for final tallies. The current order book implies a 16% probability that the number of departing Democrats reaches the threshold specified in the market's resolution criteria.
Historical precedent suggests retirement rates vary significantly by cycle and party circumstances. In 2022, approximately 29 House Democrats did not seek reelection, whilst in 2020 the figure was around 22. Retirements typically accelerate when a party faces headwinds or when senior members perceive shifting electoral dynamics. The current 16% implied probability reflects expectations that Democratic departures will fall below whatever numerical threshold the market has set, though the exact threshold remains critical to interpreting this probability.
Traders should monitor announcement schedules from major Democratic figures, particularly committee chairs and members representing competitive districts. Early signals often emerge during the autumn and winter preceding an election year, with filing deadlines in individual states typically occurring between February and April 2026. Economic conditions, legislative accomplishments, and shifts in presidential approval ratings between now and spring 2026 will influence retirement calculations. Recent reporting on Democratic recruitment efforts and seat defence strategies will provide context for whether party leadership expects significant attrition.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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