Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| B | — | |
| Democratic Party | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
| A | — | |
| Republican Party | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Other | — | |
| C | — | |
Connecticut's 5th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The seat is currently held by Democrat Jahana Hayes, who won the district in 2018 and has retained it through subsequent cycles despite the district's competitive lean. The resolution will depend on which party's candidate prevails in what is expected to be a contested general election, with outcomes determined by the conclusive calling of results by major news organisations and election authorities.
The CT-05 district has shifted in partisan composition over recent election cycles. Hayes' 2020 victory margin narrowed to approximately 2 percentage points, and the district has trended Republican relative to national Democratic performance. Comparable suburban Connecticut districts have seen competitive races in 2022, with some flipping to Republican control whilst others remained Democratic. Historical precedent suggests the district remains genuinely competitive rather than safely held by either party, making early probability formation on Polymarket's order book sensitive to candidate announcements and national political conditions.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate declarations, expected in early 2026, and the primary election schedule which will determine each party's nominee. National economic conditions and approval ratings through 2025 and into 2026 will significantly influence the district's partisan lean. Redistricting effects from the 2020 census are already embedded in the current district boundaries, so no further boundary changes are anticipated before the election. The implied probability on Polymarket will likely shift substantially once candidates are formally announced and polling data emerges specific to the district matchups.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CT-05 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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