Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Other | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 1st Round Outright Winner | 13% YES | 87% NO |
Colombia will hold its presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a runoff scheduled for 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round. The 24% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current expectations that this specific candidate pair will advance to the second round, though the market remains relatively illiquid given the distance to settlement. The probability is being formed by traders pricing the likelihood of both candidates finishing in the top two positions whilst accounting for the possibility of an outright first-round winner, which would resolve the market to an alternative outcome.
Colombian presidential elections have historically proceeded to second rounds, with outright first-round victories rare under the current electoral framework. The 2022 election saw Gustavo Petro advance with 40.3% in the first round before winning the runoff decisively. This precedent suggests markets should assign meaningful probability to a second-round scenario, though the composition of the field and candidate support trajectories differ materially from 2022. Current polling dynamics and candidate positioning will determine whether concentration of votes behind leading contenders makes an outright first-round win plausible.
Key catalysts include official candidate registration deadlines, polling releases tracking first and second-choice preferences, and campaign developments that might consolidate or fragment voter support. The extended timeline to May 2026 means traders should monitor shifts in Colombian political dynamics, economic conditions affecting incumbent popularity, and any institutional changes to electoral rules. Recent statements from potential candidates and their campaign infrastructure will provide signals about the competitive field's likely shape.
Elections in Colombia are regulated and controlled by the National Electoral Council (CNE) which also provides information on elections and election results.
The 2007 Colombian regional and municipal elections were held in the Republic of Colombia on October 28, 2007. The elections were organized as established by the Colombian Constitution of 1991 by the National Electoral Council to elect Department governors with its respective Department Assemblies, Mayors with their respective City Councils and the Local Adm
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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