Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| January 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo took office as President of Mexico on 1 October 2024, becoming the country's first female president. This market examines whether she will resign or be removed from office before 30 June 2026—a window covering her first twenty months in power. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are pricing meaningful risk of early departure within this timeframe.
Mexican presidents historically serve their full six-year constitutional terms, with forced removal exceptionally rare under the current constitutional framework. The last sitting president to leave office prematurely was Carlos Salinas de Gortari in 1994, who departed after his presidency formally concluded amid political turmoil. Sheinbaum's coalition controls both chambers of Congress, providing substantial legislative backing. Health crises, major corruption allegations, or severe political fracture would represent the primary historical precedents for early exit, though none currently characterise her administration.
Near-term catalysts centre on her legislative agenda and approval ratings through 2025. Economic performance, particularly inflation and currency stability, will shape political sustainability; Mexico's central bank has maintained rates above 10% as of late 2024. Any major security incidents or diplomatic crises could destabilise her position, though her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador navigated comparable challenges without resignation. Congressional dynamics and potential shifts in her coalition's cohesion warrant monitoring through mid-2026, though the probability remains structurally low given constitutional protections and current political alignment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$196K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $662 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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